Earth is more sensitive to greenhouse gases than we thought
Our climate seems to be more sensitive to greenhouse gas emissions than some researchers had hoped, meaning the world will have to up its decarbonisation efforts
By Madeleine Cuff
24 June 2025
Climate change could be even worse than we thought
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Earth’s climate may be more sensitive to pollution from greenhouse gas emissions than we had hoped, which could mean limiting the rise in global temperature to less than 2°C will be more difficult.
This is “bad news” for global efforts to tackle climate change, says Gunnar Myhre at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway.
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The jet stream may be starting to shift in response to climate change
Researchers have known for decades that pumping greenhouse gases into Earth’s atmosphere will warm the climate, with far-reaching consequences. But what scientists do not know for sure is how much warming we can expect as a consequence of this pollution. In other words, how sensitive is Earth’s climate to these emissions?
The main uncertainty stems from the question of how clouds will respond to a warming atmosphere, as shifts in cloud systems can amplify the warming effect in a vicious feedback loop.
Most estimates of how much warming we can expect by the end of the century are based on running climate models with a range of sensitivity assumptions. Models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest that a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations relative to pre-industrial levels would produce between 2°C and 5°C of warming, with the organisation settling on a central estimate of 3°C.
